If Donald Trump is your drunk uncle, then Governor John Kasich is your cranky granddad. He tries to be nice, he tries to be that hopeful "Morning in America" Reagan style Republican, but he can't help but give in to the cranky side of his nature. It's like hearing a story from certain relatives, that even if you are interested in what they have to say, you will have to get through a few racist, sexist, or homophobic asides to get to the end of the story. That's how I feel when hearing Kasich speak, that he tries to maintain that even tone, but you can feel that cranky "get off my lawn" side is just itching to get out and yell at somebody.He recently had a particularly tough day at the University of Richmond. He tried to relate to the students, but it just makes him seem more out of touch with certain segments of voters.
John Kasich doesn't strike me as being all that moderate, but the definition of liberal, moderate, and conservative are more subjective than ever. Compared to some of the extreme members of the GOP these days, Kasich would be seen as moderate, and compared to the Freedon Caucaus that is willing to shut the government down if they don't get their way, he is. Kasich is more like Jeb Bush, a conservative establishment figure that is willing to work within the realms of government and seeing the need to compromise when it is required. He allowed the Medicade expansion in Ohio, when other red state governors resisted the expansion. He has also taken less extreme views on the environment and immigration. Like McCain in 2008 and Romney 2012, a President Kasich would want to achieve his goals by using the mechanisms of government. Compared to Senator Ted Cruz, who has brought the more militant attitude from the House into Senate, the establishment guys are trying to make government work and not blow it up.
Even with a fairly respectable establishment resume, Kasich is having problems gaining traction polling wise. He is in the middle of the pack in New Hampshire, and towards the bottom national polls and in Iowa. Even with his current struggles, there is a good chance that Kasich will be on the presidential ballot in November 2016 as either the Republican presidential or vice presidential nominee. If you believe the thinking of pretty much the entire political world, none of the current top three candidates (Trump, Carson, and Fiorina) will end up being the GOP nominee. Jeb! Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Christie, and Kasich are the group that will likely produce the nominee. Kasich looks to have as good of a chance as any of those 5 guys to win. They all have positives and negatives that they will have to deal with when it comes to dealing with a very fickle Republican base. With no clear front runner, being able to put together wins in the early states will be crucial, and then it becomes a question of survival and having enough money. If you are Kasich, it looks like Bush's decline will continue, people will realize Rubio is not ready for prime time, especially as people really pay attention to him, and that Christie and Cruz have no base to expand. Even if you don't become the nominee, Bush or Rubio could choose you for the VP slot because the path to the White House on the Republican side has to include Ohio and Florida.
Beyond 2016, if Kasich does not become president or vice president, he will probably serve out the rest of term in Ohio. After that he has to decide if wants to get reelected or head back to the business world or Fox News which is what he did between being in Congress and being Ohio governor. Seeing that he has worked in some form of government for most of his life, he does not seem to be anxious to get out any time soon, at least as long as he has a choice about it.
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